As part of the festivities celebrating our reentry into San Francisco International Airport (SFO) this Monday, Southwest Airlines also announced that we're going to supplement our initial SFO service by adding eight daily nonstops between SFO and Los Angeles Int'l Airport (LAX) effective November 4. This will supplement our existing 20 daily roundtrips (which operate on the hour or half hour all day long) between LAX and Oakland International Airport (OAK), which is quite literally just across the bay from SFO. While SFO isn't a "brand new" airport for Southwest (we served the airport for 19 years prior to discontinuing service in early 2001 due to congestion and cost issues), we've never flown between SFO and LAX. And it's about time–the SFO (and OAK) to LAX market has an interesting history.
Because I am a hopeless airline geek, I took a look at industry data going all the way back to 1979, which is roughly when I got into this insane industry. Back then, the SFO-LAX air passenger market was the largest in the country, with 49 daily flights on nine airlines with about 7,400 seats a day going back and forth, carrying roughly 1,520 people each day paying an average of $122 in 1997 dollars. Remember, back then, load factors were lower, and there were lots more connections going on, so the percentage of folks flying nonstop from origin to destination was much lower. By comparison, LAX to OAK in 1979 was served by 10 flights on 2 airlines, with about 1,800 seats serving only about **seven** (yes, SEVEN) local passengers flying between the two airports per day each way, and they paid an average of $139 in 1997 dollars. I guess that market was all connecting passengers.
Fast forward to now. SFO-LAX is far, far down the list of largest markets. While still large, today five airlines offer 37 daily departures with about 4,600 seats a day (and of the 9 that flew the route in 1979, only 3 survive)….but it serves only 1,100 passengers a day, who paid an average of $127–a roughly 32% decrease in the size of the market with no increase in average fare. Compare that with LAX-OAK, where there are now about 3,100 seats on 28 daily flights by 3 airlines (and neither of the two that flew the route in 1979 are still in business). However, even though LAX-OAK still has fewer seats than LAX-SFO, it carries nearly 1,700 local passengers each day (far more than LAX-SFO), who pay an average of just $87–a savings of $40 over LAX-SFO!
So, the traveling public has shifted in large numbers from LAX-SFO in favor of LAX-OAK. Wonder why? (Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?) It's fare driven…and the fare driver has been Southwest Airlines. Note the average fare difference between LAX-SFO and LAX-OAK. While I won't make predictions here…if I were a bettin' man, now that Southwest is flying between LAX and SFO, I'd bet that the fares in that market will drop like Brittany Spears' approval rating. We will bring our pricing to the market, which will give far more people the Freedom to Fly….and we'll do just as we have everywhere else in this Country–grow the market!
Welcome back, SFO, we've missed you….and welcome to the family, SFO-LAX!
Comments
Bill,
As a fellow airline geek, I found your post fascinating. One of the carriers flying between SFO and LAX was Pan Am. They had a 747 that ran some of the days of the week from SFO to LAX before continuing to South America. They sold their fares for an amazing $14 (or maybe it was $19) one way. It was quite a contrast with the local SFO/LAX bargain fare travelers mixing with people paying thousands to fly to South America.
Brian
Brian, i remember Pan Am flying SFO-LAX--because I flew them! Back in 1979 they flew a 747-SP leaving SFO at 0700 arriving at about 0830....and I bought a $19 ticket on it because it was (1) cheap and (2) a 747-SP. My former employer didn't fly that market then, and the fare was cheaper than the service charge for a pass! I don't remember where the flight continued onto after LAX but it was a rather "eclectic" group.
The gate area they left from at SFO was the old PSA "rotunda" at SFO that is no more. And although Southwest Airlines Flight Attendants can get out drinks, peanuts, and 2nds on drinks between Northern and Southern California....the Pan Am Flight Attendants were "unable to provide beverage service due to the short duration of the flight." Ahem....okay, whatever!
Where are these statistics from?
Micah,
Traffic is from CAB/DOT Table 8, and airline schedules are from the OAG.....but there is now a question of whether or not PSA or World reported traffic to the CAB back then--I've asked my VP, Pete McGlade, to see if he remembers. He worked for both PSA and AirCal back then--he should know. Update to follow!
Bill
Ok, now I have two Southwest Blog favorites -- Pilot reports and Industry data. Lots of airline geeks out here.
Way to bring back memories! I really miss AirCal and PSA, and to a lesser extent RenoAir. I used to fly AirCal all the time between northern and southern California, same with Reno.
Hey Bill,
I got to thinking about the 1979 OAK/LAX numbers and they seem awfully light. I worked in OAK at the time, and my airline's operations office was right next to PSAs gates. They filled up 727s to LAX on a daily basis. I know they boarded more than seven people a day?
Brian
Bill,
Your analogy with the increased LAX-OAK is definately correct and has been noted as the "Southwest Effect". We have noticed a similar impact here in Philadelphia on many flights. As a frequent traveler between Philadelphia and Buffalo, NY, two cities that Southwest serves but not directly, I'm hoping you guys look into starting service between Philly and Buffalo. Actually, is there anything I can do except plead with you to start service! There is only one direct carrier between the two markets, US Airways, and the fares are way too expensive and they don't have the famous Southwest hospitality. Philadelphia is a big market and I would think direct service between Philly and Buffalo/NF would be highly utilized. Look at the experience with flights between Baltimore and Buffalo which are numerous and full. No one before Southwest would have ever picked this as a top route in and out of the Buffalo market. Please look into initiating direct flights between Philly and Buffalo. I beg you! Thanks!
Brian,
I think Bill is refering to people who only fly from lax to Oak and then leaving the airport. The rest were connecting passengers.
Where's da spell cheqer?
Ding! boy
Joe
Ding! Boy
With most airlines that may have been true but like SWA, PSA didnt interline and served on on point to point route system. Also like SWA PSA was just beginning to fly out of state in 1979. Bottomline PSA didnt have any connecting traffic out of OAK. The airport was very different then with only ten or so gates total.
Blog Boy
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