Forgive me, Blogosphere, for I have sinned.
I’ve been so wrapped up in a few other issues this past week that I completely neglected—well, actually, forgot—to prepare a blog post about our January, 2009 schedule, which went out for sale last Thursday. There are a lot of changes incorporated into that schedule, both frequency changes as well as changes to methodology (love that word—sounds so “consultant-ish”!). So, let’s dive right in!
As lots of people have already noticed—and I have to admit, you media types and all of you guys on on FlyerTalk.com and airliners.net are incredibly observant!—we have a lot of changes in the January ‘09 schedule. The number of departures change in a whopping 98 roundtrip markets (including three, which get one MORE flight each!) compared to the November ’08 schedule. Still, I wouldn’t characterize any of these as huge strategic “statements” as only three markets have been completely discontinued (Birmingham-Phoenix, Nashville-Oakland, and Nashville-Seattle), and neither are there any completely new markets. We have made these changes to better align our flying schedule with our Passenger demand.
The more interesting, schedule-geeky details are about how, and why, these reductions have been accomplished. From a scheduler’s standpoint, two things happen in every January Schedule. One, we go into winter weather, and flying times—the time it takes to get from point “A” to “B”—take the largest increase of the year. Two, we move into a traditionally slower traffic period (and January and February are two really sluggish months from an airline traffic standpoint), and that really kills flights that depart really early or really late. And you guys have told us—by your flying habits!—that you don’t like flights before 7:00 a.m., nor ones after 8:00 p.m. Our new schedule optimization “algorithm” (again, LOVE that word—sounds so educated!) allows us to move departure times around within individual markets with nearly surgical precision. We tell it we know about the earliest and latest desired flights in each market—literally, we tell the optimizer what departure times you guys want—and the resulting schedule is one that mirrors more closely than ever what you, our Customers, want.
For the January ‘09 schedule we really took advantage of this new capability and made the earliest flights later and the latest flights earlier. The result: the vast majority of the flights that are trimmed in the January schedule would have departed in the 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. or 8:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. time frames. A hidden dynamic that’s driving this whole early/late thing is the fact that we’re not adding any new aircraft in the January schedule, so had we not slightly reduced our schedule, the longer winter flying times would have had the effect of spreading the first and last flights of the day into those time frames that we already know y’all don’t like.
Yes, I may have “sinned” in my failure to communicate, but hopefully I can come up with suitable penance to make up for it. Maybe I’ll share my grandmother’s home-made Banana Pudding recipe with you….Nanny might roll over in her grave but trust me, it’ll win me your forgiveness (even if it will blow your diet for the entire last half of 2008)!!!
Comments
Thank you, Bill.
Very interesting Bill, thanks for the knowledge.
Now if you guys would just go in, finish the job you started, and blow US right into Chapter 7.......
Bill, you make all that hard work sound like fun!
I understand that compressing all the departures into a smaller fraction of the day would reduce the maximum number of flights you can operate with a given number of aircraft. That's a factor I had not considered before.
Are you keeping more aircraft than usual in reserve, completely unscheduled? I believe that would be prudent given the high probability that some major airline will suddenly shut down and leave a gaping hole in the country's air travel network.
Assuming you do have some reserve aircraft, are your people able to put together a reasonably efficient schedule overnight if another carrier shuts down? That would seem almost impossible. And it only gets worse if you have to "steal" aircraft from the existing schedule. How about a blog post on your preparations for that middle of the night phone call?
Hi Bill,
Do you have anything more new routes from FLL next year by early January 2009? I understand this situation from DEN has been continuations more expanded new routes all of the times. I don't see the sound of logical choice for WN will have plans to added more new routes from FLL-LAX/PHX/ABQ/SAN/BHM/ORF/OMA/SLC.
Also, PHX hasn't anything more new routes for all of these years. Perhaps WN will plans to get added more new routes from PHX-ALB/BOI/GEG/FLL/PBI/JAX/IAD. I'm sure if you will find out more specific information from WN for next January 2009. I'm sure if PHX will continuation more capacity growth. If you feels about confident more new nonstop from PHX or FLL, too. I am understands from WN wants to plans expandable new routes. Thank you for your concerning from WN.
Regards
This puts the changes out there again...but I already know what the changes are because they were in the Dallas Morning News. What bothers me is that Nashville has gained two cities since 2001 and lost five while seeing its total daily flight number decline from near 90 down in to the 70's and below with us always losing more frequencies than we gain which is VERY similar to the way that American Airlines did us up until the time they dropped us as hub and thus concerning because we go from being like Memphis, Raleigh, and St. Louis to being more like Birmingham and Greensboro in terms of air service if that trend continues and this happens to us again. As I'm sure you can understand that is very frustrating for Nashvillians.
Hey, guys! Taking a break from DNC coverage.....
PB, you ROCK. Thank you for all of your support!
Wes, that's never a goal of ours....but where markets are over-fared, when we get in and lower fares, the pie gets LOTS bigger and there is suddenly enough traffic for everyone. Perhaps not at the fare levels that the other guys want, but that's their problem. Hello, Southwest Effect!
nsx--you have no idea how much fun our job is. It takes a certain mindset--but it's like we're stealing from Southwest we enjoy what we do so much. Brian sent me your previous email and I do intend to write a blog post on the whole "underbuilding" concept. It's hotly under debate now and there are some very definite hard constraints that currently prevent us from doing a lot of it--but there are some other ways we can get around things to do it, and we certainly have in the past--and will do in the future, perhaps even more so. Stay tuned for a blog piece in a few weeks (and thanks for doing a greate job on flyertalk!).
Back to the speeches....irrespective of your political leanings, it's so much fun to watch these political spectacles just for their oratoracle value, or lack thereof. And yes....I am a communication geek!
Later...I'll be watching over the next few days and respond as I can.
Bill
Evening, Anonymous!
Regarding Nashville's service reductions....I can understand you guys in Nashville are sensitive to service reductions. But let me be very direct about my disagreement with your comparison. American Airlines completely dismantled their sizeable hub at Nashville. Went from around 200 daily departures down to less than a quarter of that. Southwest's minor, and I do mean minor, frequency adjustments in January of '09 is like comparing the kid at day care that give your kid chickenpox to Typhoid Mary. Way, way overstatement. Nashville is losing two nonstop destinations on Southwest, both of which will retain onestop direct or connecting service, and a couple of other minor frequency adjustments. The promise of a return of nonstop service later remains, as does reinstatement of the reduced frequencies.
The important thing here is to understand that Southwest is actively working to match our schedule to Passenger demand--both by time of day, and by nonstop market. Markets that can't support nonstop service, if other itinerary options are available, are at risk in the current environment. However, this January adjustment has addressed the vast majority of the January/February issues, and we are busily re-assessing things for March. And May. And August. And November.......
Southwest has been an awesome, supportive, and faithful partner to the Nashville Metropolitan Airport Authority, as well as to the local Nashville communithy. This reduction is minor. Let's keep it in perspective. Please? Or no banana pudding recipe for you...... *grin*
I just flew RT from DEN to FLL last week on SWA for the first time. I have never had such wonderful flights -- both arrived early, plus I LOVE the ability to grab the seat you want!!! So I am HOPING and PRAYING flights between DEN & FLL will not be part of this cut.
Keep up the Xcellent work SWA!!!
Hey Bill!
Again, thanks for the change in LAS-SDF nonstop departure time.
The 10:30AM departure is IDEAL!!
Hope this will stick around into Spring/Summer '09, typically when we travel to SDF more frequently.
Bill,
Thanks for all of the great info on how scheduling works and what we need to look forward to. I love hearing what hard work you guys put in to truly optimize your crews, aircraft, and other resources to best suite the customer.
Joseph R. Meyers
Dallas, Texas
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